Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
