A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him over missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
