A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
